Kenya: Evacuations of at-risk areas ordered across the country as flood-related disruptions continue as of May 1 /update 1

The government has ordered the evacuation of flood-prone areas across Kenya as disruptions due to flooding continue across many parts of the country as of May 1. Heavy rainfall has affected many parts of the country since March, triggering widespread flooding and landslides affecting at least 21 out of Kenya's 47 counties. As of May 1, authorities have reported at least 179 flood-related fatalities across the country since March, including 48 people who were killed by flash flooding near Mai Mahiu in Nakuru County April 29. At least 125 others have been injured, and 90 people are missing. The flooding has displaced over 195,000 people across the country, and President William Ruto announced plans to evacuate all people in flood- and mudslide-prone areas across Kenya April 30; authorities have reportedly completed the mapping of at-risk areas May 1 and are requesting people evacuate these areas in the next 48 hours. Relief camps are being set up across the country for those being evacuated, which are expected to number in the several thousands. Many roads across the country have been inundated due to floodwaters, and resultant transport disruptions are likely to continue in the coming days.

Further heavy rainfall is forecast to continue over much of the country through at least May 6 and further showers are likely throughout the remainder of the rainy season through early June. Heavy downpours will likely trigger additional flooding and hamper ongoing relief efforts.

Further sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.