Philippines: Presidential State of the Nation address July 24

Event

On Monday, July 24, President Rodrigo Duterte will deliver his second State of the Nation address (SONA) at the House of Representatives hall in the Manila metropolitan area. Heightened security measures are expected; 6000 security personnel will be deployed, compared to the 4000 deployed for Duterte’s first SONA. According to the Manila police, around 5000 people are expected to hold anti-Duterte protests during the speech. Protesters will be allowed to demonstrate outside of the south gate of the Batasan Complex, near the House of Representatives.

According to reports, the protesters may block two lanes of Batasan Road’s eastbound lane. As such, potential traffic disruptions should be expected.

Context

While last year’s protests during Duterte’s SONA were peaceful, police believe there is a higher chance of violence from leftist groups this year due to ongoing peace talks between communist groups and the government, as well as due to the government-imposed martial law in Mindanao. A major armed conflict has been ongoing in Marawi City (Mindanao island) since May 23, following a botched government raid on a hideout sheltering Isnilon Hapilon, a commander of the Abu Sayyaf militant group.

A spokesman for the military stated on July 14 that the Marawi crisis will not end before Duterte’s SONA. The spokesman stated that the military needs ten to 15 more days to clear around 600 more buildings occupied by Maute militants. This extends past the 60-day period of martial law, which will expire on July 22; the military may extend the measure.

As of July 14, the official death toll in Marawi included 392 militants, 93 government security forces, and 45 civilians.

Advice

Individuals in Mania are advised to avoid all protests due to the possibility of violence and account for potential traffic disruptions.

Individuals are advised to avoid the region surrounding Marawi City, to monitor the situation, and to obey all instructions issued by the local authorities.

As a reminder, most Western governments formally advise against all travel to southwest Mindanao and to the Sulu Archipelago due to terrorist activity, regular clashes between the military and insurgent groups, and the risk of kidnapping by Abu Sayyaf.