India: Political rallies likely to intensify nationwide through at least mid-May /update 8

Political rallies will likely intensify through at least mid-May amid the general election period slated to occur through June 1. In recent weeks, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the primary opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), have protested in several urban centers. As of May 3, some planned campaigns include the following:

• May 4: Prime Minister Modi is set to address rallies in Palamu and Sisai, Jharkhand State.

• May 5: Modi will hold a meeting at 15:00 in Etawah, Uttar Pradesh State.

• May 6: Modi is set to address a public meeting in Berhampur, Odisha State, at 10:00 before attending a rally in Nabarangpur at 12:30. INC lawmaker Rahul Gandhi will hold a rally at Basia, Jharkhand State.

Further gatherings of various types, including street marches, are highly probable by the BJP and other political parties. Additionally, unionized farmers could intensify their sporadic protest campaigns to publicize their perceived grievances with existing agricultural policies. Counterdemonstrations are possible and may coincide with other prior gatherings. Potential rally sites include sports and university grounds, prominent public squares, and major highways. Well-attended events typically draw hundreds of thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain an increased security posture in several regions across India. The tightest security is likely during events led by Prime Minister Modi; reports indicate he may address up to 150 rallies during his campaign trail. Clashes between police and activists, as well as members of rival political camps, are possible.